Sky Bet EFL preview and prediction
Much like Reading and Stoke, Millwall have benefitted from their decision to change manager during the season as they now sit on the verge of the soccer tips for tomorrow
Gary Rowett's men could move into the top-six with victory over Derby on Saturday but the Rams will hold some play-off aspirations of their own. The general poor run of results overall for those in-and-around that part of the table has left them five points off sixth.
The main issue is that they are currently 12th and there's a group of other teams around them looking lớn break into that part of the table.
Phillip Cocu's side have had too much of a reliance on home results as well. They sit second in the home standings with ten wins from 19 matches but find themselves 21st in the away table.
In Millwall, they take on a side who have only lost three of their 18 league games in front of their own supporters. It makes the hosts' 11/10 price tempting value to include in the weekend accumulators- According lớn the soccer tip to win page!
Instead of taking that outright price, the value again comes in the goalscorer market and backing a Millwall defender lớn find the net.
In our preview of Millwall's 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, we discussed their strength from set-piece situations and how dangerous they are from corners and attacking set-pieces.
Following that win in the East Midlands, 41% of their overall goals this season have come from set-pieces. Jake Cooper went close lớn grabbing a goal himself last time out.
In this game though, we're going to back his defensive partner Shaun Hutchinson getting onto the scoresheet given his dominance in the air.
The 29-year-old's last five games have seen him win a combined 34 aerial duels. Over the course of this season, Hutchinson sits seventh for aerial duels won overall in the Championship.
Derby have seen 33% of their goals against away from home this campaign come from set-pieces. At the Den, against a team chasing for promotion and possessing clear dominance in this area, they are likely to come undone from a similar situation.
Taking Hutchinson's best price of 11/1 for a goal anytime looks good value in this contest.
Best bet: Shaun Hutchinson to score anytime at 11/1
Millwall are looking lớn record a league double over Derby for the second consecutive season, having beaten the Rams twice during the 2018-19 campaign.
Derby have won just one of their last 12 away games against Millwall in all competitions (W1 D5 L6).
Former Derby manager Gary Rowett has won his last three Championship games against the Rams, all with different clubs – Birmingham (2015-16), Stoke (2018-19) and Millwall earlier this season.
Millwall are without a win in their last four home league games, drawing the last three in a row (L1). They last went five without winning at home in March 2019.
Derby are looking to win three consecutive league games for the first time since September 2018. However, the Rams are winless in their last 13 away league games in London (D7 L6), losing all four such games in 2019-20.
Millwall striker Matt Smith (11), who scored a hat-trick last time out vs Nottingham Forest, is one goal away from equalling his best scoring season in the Championship (12 with Leeds in 2013-14).